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To investors,

The President’s son was on CNBC this morning talking about bitcoin. But Eric Trump wasn’t just talking, he was spreading the gospel of the digital currency. Take a listen to this:

It is not every day you hear someone with a direct line to the President say “bitcoin has become the truly greatest asset of our time.”

That sounds awesome, but the devil is in the details. First, Daniel Pico points out gold is outperforming bitcoin so far in 2025. Gold is up 40% and Bitcoin is only up 22%. Now some of you may be worried by this fact, but I wouldn’t jump to conclusions.

Gold outperformed earlier in the year, bitcoin eventually caught up and surpassed the gold performance, and then gold recently re-captured the lead in recent weeks. Why does this happen? Well, it appears that gold has become a leading indicator for bitcoin’s performance.

I shared this chart from Jack Green back in May. It shows that bitcoin tends to breakout and catch up to gold’s performance on an approximately 100 day lag. So when gold runs, bitcoin waits about 3-months and then quickly follows.

Given this dynamic, you can think of bitcoin as a coiled spring. The digital currency is waiting to thrust itself higher. Because of this, Timothy Peterson says “Bitcoin is having its worst bull market year ever.”

Plenty of bitcoiners are disappointed by this performance. Classic! Any other investor in the world would be ecstatic about a 23% annual return, but bitcoiners are used to significantly higher returns. They don’t want tens of percent, they want hundreds of percent and they want it every year.

I wouldn’t hold my breath for that level of performance though.

I do believe bitcoin is going higher through the end of the year. We have the interest rate cut that should occur this week, which will bring cheap capital into assets like bitcoin, and analyst Frank Fetter highlights the Bitcoin MACD is showing green for the first time in weeks.

The Bitcoin Moving Average Convergence Divergence, known as the MACD, is a momentum measurement that historically does a good job of showing when sentiment is flipping bullish. As the market becomes more excited, capital flows and bitcoin goes higher.

You don’t have to overthink everything. Sometimes it really is simple.

Lastly, Axel Adler points out the 3-year Bitcoin Risk Index is measuring at 23% right now.

The last time this index was so low for an extended period of time, we saw bitcoin rise from below $30,000 per coin to nearly $60,000 per coin. This happened between September 2023 and December 2023.

I am not saying bitcoin is going to double in price over the next 120 days, but I do think we are seeing numerous data points line up for bitcoin to go higher in the coming weeks. The bitcoin bull market is not over. There is still plenty of fun for people to have.

Just don’t expect this bull market to look like past ones.

Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Will The Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Happen Again?

Henrik Zeberg is the Head Macro Economist at Swiss Block.

In this conversation we talk about the macro outlook, K-shaped economy, inflation, a potential big tech bust coming, why the 4-year bitcoin cycle is not going anywhere, and what a monetary reset would look like.

Enjoy!

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